Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.0%). MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Acciari 50.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 91.3%
Defensive zone
Acciari 87.1%
Neutral zone
Acciari 53.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
MacKinnon
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKinnon
Acciari
Last 5: MacKinnon 4-1 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Acciari
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Acciari
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Acciari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
52.7% (313)
-3.0%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
33.3% (18)
+30.4%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
49.7% (195)
-15.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Acciari is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Acciari
Home
53.1% (618)
52.6% (291)
Away
49.1% (609)
48.9% (235)
By Period
MacKinnon
Acciari
P1
49.3%
53.7%
P2
53.0%
51.1%
P3
50.7%
48.5%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 10:59 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |