Nathan MacKinnon vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Girgensons leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.4%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 83.0%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 60.2%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Girgensons
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
MacKinnon
Girgensons
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
MacKinnon
Girgensons
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
45.1% (164)
+4.6%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
50.0% (2)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
45.2% (31)
-10.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
MacKinnon shoots right. Girgensons is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Home
53.1% (606)
44.6% (92)
Away
49.1% (609)
45.7% (105)
By Period
MacKinnon
Girgensons
P1
49.4%
44.2%
P2
52.8%
46.0%
P3
50.8%
45.1%
Final 5 min
56.6%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |