Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kadri wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.9% vs Cates 45.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 61.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.0%
Neutral zone
Kadri 50.6%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Kadri
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kadri
Cates
Last 8: Kadri 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
0
Kadri
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Kadri
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
4
1
Kadri
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (866)
45.5% (756)
+1.0%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
42.1% (114)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
44.7% (47)
-6.2%
On power play, Kadri has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kadri is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Kadri shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Kadri
Cates
Home
45.8% (513)
46.2% (468)
Away
47.6% (452)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Kadri
Cates
P1
52.4%
46.0%
P2
48.5%
47.5%
P3
39.7%
42.1%
OT
44.4%
18.2%
Final 5 min
46.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |