Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.3% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 74.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 78.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 78.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Kadri
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kadri
Stamkos
Last 6: Kadri 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (848)
57.1% (368)
-10.2%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
55.2% (96)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
50.0% (10)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kadri is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Kadri shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Kadri
Stamkos
Home
46.5% (495)
53.9% (230)
Away
47.6% (452)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Kadri
Stamkos
P1
52.6%
56.7%
P2
48.9%
54.1%
P3
40.1%
59.2%
OT
44.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
34.0%▼
38.0%
47.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |