Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 47.1% vs Dowd 48.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 79.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 73.2%
Neutral zone
Zary 50.2%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Zary
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zary
Dowd
Last 6: Zary 1-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Zary
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Zary
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Zary
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (136)
51.2% (666)
-4.1%
Power Play
31.6% (19)
0.0% (2)
+31.6%
On power play, Zary has a +31.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zary is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Zary shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Zary
Dowd
Home
45.6% (79)
48.5% (466)
Away
44.7% (76)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Zary
Dowd
P1
48.3%
48.4%
P2
46.3%
46.8%
P3
39.5%
51.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:35 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:40 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 01:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |