Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.5%). Look for Kotkaniemi on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Dowd 48.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 87.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.6%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 50.2%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 6: Kotkaniemi 4-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
51.0% (671)
-3.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
0.0% (2)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
41.5% (224)
-8.2%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
46.5% (129)
48.2% (471)
Away
50.0% (84)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
51.3%
48.3%
P2
46.1%
46.8%
P3
45.9%
51.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |