Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kotkaniemi wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.5% vs Dowd 49.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 86.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 9: Kotkaniemi 3-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (670)
52.2% (835)
+0.6%
Power Play
37.5% (32)
60.0% (10)
-22.5%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
44.0% (350)
-29.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
52.5% (366)
51.5% (619)
Away
51.0% (343)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
53.8%
51.7%
P2
49.2%
51.6%
P3
52.6%
47.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |