Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.8% vs Steel 50.6% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 66.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.7%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Dowd
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowd
Steel
Last 5: Dowd 2-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Dowd
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (666)
52.5% (200)
-1.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
71.4% (7)
-71.4%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
40.0% (45)
+1.5%
On power play, Steel has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Dowd shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Dowd
Steel
Home
48.5% (466)
49.5% (109)
Away
48.8% (426)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Dowd
Steel
P1
48.4%
49.5%
P2
46.8%
47.5%
P3
51.3%
56.6%
OT
30.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |