Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Foligno 52.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 62.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 61.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Pavelski
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Foligno
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
53.4% (249)
-1.9%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
53.2% (154)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
40.6% (32)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Foligno is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Foligno
Home
53.1% (339)
57.3% (225)
Away
49.2% (356)
47.1% (210)
By Period
Pavelski
Foligno
P1
53.8%
53.0%
P2
47.8%
51.8%
P3
50.2%
52.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |