Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 73.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Lazar
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Lazar
Paul
Last 10: Lazar 8-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
6
2
Lazar
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Lazar
Paul
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
5
2
Lazar
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,665)
52.6% (3,823)
-2.4%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
56.2% (484)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
46.9% (576)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lazar is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,288).
Lazar shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Lazar
Paul
Home
50.1% (1,549)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Lazar
Paul
P1
48.9%
53.8%
P2
48.9%
51.0%
P3
49.5%
52.2%
OT
56.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
49.2%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:42 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 04:47 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |