Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaunce wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 73.7%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 86.3%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 57.5%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Last 7: Gaunce 4-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Gaunce
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
4
1
Gaunce
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
45.9% (697)
+12.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
47.9% (117)
-47.9%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
48.0% (25)
+4.0%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Gaunce is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Gaunce shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Schmaltz
Home
54.8% (93)
44.9% (434)
Away
59.1% (88)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Gaunce
Schmaltz
P1
62.3%
41.5%
P2
48.1%
46.7%
P3
59.5%
51.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |