Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Steel 50.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 57.9%
Defensive zone
Steel 85.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 67.7%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Schmaltz
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Schmaltz
Steel
Last 5: Schmaltz 4-1 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Schmaltz
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
3
0
Schmaltz
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
52.5% (200)
-6.6%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
71.4% (7)
-23.5%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
40.0% (45)
+8.0%
On power play, Steel has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Steel
Home
44.9% (434)
49.5% (109)
Away
47.7% (405)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Schmaltz
Steel
P1
41.5%
49.5%
P2
46.7%
47.5%
P3
51.1%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |