Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 50.6% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 76.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.6%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Suzuki
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Suzuki
Sturm
Last 6: Suzuki 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
0
Suzuki
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Suzuki
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Suzuki
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (945)
54.6% (271)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (67)
54.4% (90)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Suzuki is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Suzuki shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Sturm
Home
51.0% (637)
53.0% (168)
Away
50.2% (657)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Suzuki
Sturm
P1
53.1%
58.2%
P2
47.4%
53.2%
P3
51.3%
52.3%
OT
48.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |