Chandler Stephenson vs Nico Sturm
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 50.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Stephenson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stephenson
Sturm
Last 5: Stephenson 4-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
4
0
Stephenson
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Stephenson
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
54.6% (271)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
54.4% (90)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Sturm
Home
53.1% (672)
53.0% (168)
Away
51.1% (628)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Stephenson
Sturm
P1
54.2%
58.2%
P2
50.7%
53.2%
P3
52.0%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |