Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 56.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 91.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 74.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Backlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Backlund
Cates
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Backlund
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
1
Backlund
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
45.5% (756)
+5.0%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
42.1% (114)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
44.7% (47)
+2.4%
On power play, Backlund has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Backlund
Cates
Home
48.1% (636)
46.2% (468)
Away
51.4% (671)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Backlund
Cates
P1
45.4%
46.0%
P2
54.1%
47.5%
P3
49.2%
42.1%
OT
55.6%
18.2%
Final 5 min
48.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |