Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Cates 43.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 88.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 94.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 88.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Backlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
5
(21 meetings)
16
5
Backlund
Cates
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
1
Backlund
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
7
2
Backlund
Cates
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
2
Backlund
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
44.1% (2,786)
+5.6%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
42.9% (254)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
34.9% (373)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Backlund
Cates
Home
49.7% (8,621)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Backlund
Cates
P1
48.5%
44.5%
P2
50.3%
43.7%
P3
48.4%
41.2%
OT
45.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
48.4%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 00:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |