Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Rakell 41.0% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rakell 62.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.6%
Neutral zone
Rakell 60.0%
Result
Rickard Rakell favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Cates
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Rakell
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
Cates
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
0
1
Cates
Rakell
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Rakell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
35.7% (129)
+9.8%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
43.8% (32)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
0.0% (7)
+44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Rakell is 39.2% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Cates
Rakell
Home
46.2% (468)
41.5% (82)
Away
43.9% (449)
30.2% (86)
By Period
Cates
Rakell
P1
46.0%
35.1%
P2
47.5%
37.5%
P3
42.1%
32.6%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Rakell
42.0%▲
35.5%
35.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |