Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.2% vs Thompson 46.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cates
Thompson
Last 7: Cates 3-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Cates
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (566)
46.1% (484)
-1.9%
Power Play
44.0% (84)
48.4% (91)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (38)
30.0% (20)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
45.1% (350)
47.9% (313)
Away
43.8% (338)
43.6% (282)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
46.8%
50.5%
P2
46.5%
44.6%
P3
40.8%
42.3%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:54 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |