Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.0% vs 43.9%). Look for Boyd on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Boyd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Boyd 44.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Cates
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Cates
Boyd
Last 9: Cates 1-8 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boyd
0
3
Cates
Boyd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boyd
0
2
Cates
Boyd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boyd
1
3
Cates
Boyd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
44.4% (2,186)
-0.3%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
46.5% (256)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
35.6% (208)
-0.7%
On power play, Boyd has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Boyd is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,838).
Home / Away
Cates
Boyd
Home
43.9% (1,708)
46.3% (1,327)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
41.5% (1,324)
By Period
Cates
Boyd
P1
44.5%
41.7%
P2
43.7%
46.2%
P3
41.2%
44.0%
OT
29.4%
22.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:20 | Neutral | Noah Cates |