Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 59.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Bergeron 59.7% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 70.3%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 81.3%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 76.9%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Pavelski
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Bergeron
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Bergeron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Bergeron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Bergeron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
60.5% (1,394)
-5.5%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
64.0% (300)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
53.7% (255)
-1.5%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Pavelski shoots right. Bergeron is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bergeron
Home
58.1% (580)
62.0% (949)
Away
53.8% (567)
58.6% (1,002)
By Period
Pavelski
Bergeron
P1
53.4%
59.2%
P2
58.6%
63.9%
P3
56.4%
57.0%
OT
36.8%
68.6%
Final 5 min
57.4%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
60.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 06:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |