Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Brown wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 54.6% vs Carrick 52.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 50.5%
Defensive zone
Brown 64.9%
Neutral zone
Brown 55.8%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Brown
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Brown
Carrick
Last 6: Brown 5-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
4
0
Brown
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Brown
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
0
Brown
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (726)
52.2% (2,544)
+4.3%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
61.3% (75)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (136)
50.8% (435)
-3.0%
On even strength, Brown has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Brown shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Brown
Carrick
Home
57.4% (364)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
53.6% (506)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Brown
Carrick
P1
51.4%
51.8%
P2
54.6%
52.3%
P3
58.8%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |