Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 47.3% vs Stastny 53.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 71.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 70.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 71.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Staal
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Staal
Stastny
Last 8: Staal 2-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
4
Staal
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (552)
52.2% (1,107)
-4.6%
Power Play
49.1% (110)
61.0% (254)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (111)
46.4% (138)
-8.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Staal shoots left. Stastny is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,059).
Home / Away
Staal
Stastny
Home
49.8% (400)
52.5% (785)
Away
44.1% (401)
53.9% (739)
By Period
Staal
Stastny
P1
53.7%
51.3%
P2
43.9%
55.2%
P3
43.5%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
46.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 18:20 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 09:57 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |