Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Zacha 51.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 80.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 85.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Zacha
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.0% (700)
+6.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
54.1% (109)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
39.2% (74)
+17.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
60.0% (520)
51.6% (438)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
60.2%
57.0%
P2
58.2%
48.9%
P3
60.4%
50.5%
OT
70.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |