Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Finnie on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.2% vs Zacha 51.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finnie 53.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 75.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 63.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Finnie
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Finnie
Zacha
Last 5: Finnie 3-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Finnie
3
1
Finnie
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Finnie
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (77)
53.0% (700)
-3.6%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
54.1% (109)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
39.2% (74)
-39.2%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Finnie
Zacha
Home
47.4% (57)
51.6% (438)
Away
44.1% (34)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Finnie
Zacha
P1
48.4%
57.0%
P2
48.1%
48.9%
P3
42.4%
50.5%
Final 5 min
58.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
54.0%▲
46.2%
46.2%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |