Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Byfield 45.8% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Larkin
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Larkin
Byfield
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Byfield
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Byfield
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Byfield
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
46.8% (801)
+4.3%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.8% (59)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
35.9% (153)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Byfield is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Larkin
Byfield
Home
51.7% (686)
46.3% (462)
Away
53.0% (658)
44.6% (551)
By Period
Larkin
Byfield
P1
52.5%
44.6%
P2
52.7%
43.4%
P3
51.4%
48.7%
OT
61.3%
37.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 30, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |