Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.3%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Greig 51.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 87.2%
Neutral zone
Greig 59.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
MacKinnon
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
MacKinnon
Greig
Last 6: MacKinnon 5-1 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
0
MacKinnon
Greig
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
51.9% (347)
-2.2%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
66.7% (24)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.8% (87)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
MacKinnon shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Greig
Home
53.1% (606)
50.4% (254)
Away
49.1% (609)
52.5% (204)
By Period
MacKinnon
Greig
P1
49.4%
45.9%
P2
52.8%
60.1%
P3
50.8%
49.2%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |