Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carpenter wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 44.1% vs Steel 50.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 59.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 86.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 67.2%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Carpenter
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carpenter
Steel
Last 7: Carpenter 2-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Carpenter
Steel
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Carpenter
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (474)
49.7% (638)
-3.5%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.3% (63)
-31.7%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (129)
42.4% (33)
-9.8%
On power play, Steel has a +31.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Carpenter shoots right. Steel is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (257).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Steel
Home
46.5% (303)
47.3% (349)
Away
39.7% (307)
53.0% (385)
By Period
Carpenter
Steel
P1
44.2%
51.2%
P2
40.4%
49.8%
P3
44.2%
50.0%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 3, 2019 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 3, 2019 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |