Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Shaw wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 45.1% vs Johansen 51.2% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 55.2%
Defensive zone
Johansen 67.7%
Neutral zone
Johansen 60.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Shaw
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Shaw
Johansen
Last 9: Shaw 5-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
1
Shaw
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
Shaw
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (430)
51.2% (447)
-6.8%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
53.4% (73)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
44.4% (9)
-24.4%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Shaw is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Shaw shoots right. Johansen is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (150).
Home / Away
Shaw
Johansen
Home
45.5% (224)
54.9% (255)
Away
42.5% (233)
48.2% (274)
By Period
Shaw
Johansen
P1
39.1%
51.7%
P2
41.7%
49.4%
P3
50.3%
51.8%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2013 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 1, 2013 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 2 | 07:27 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 15:38 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |