Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 58.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Johansen 52.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 76.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 77.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pavelski
Johansen
Last 7: Pavelski 6-1 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
52.5% (1,002)
+3.2%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
56.1% (198)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
49.5% (111)
+2.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
59.2% (622)
54.7% (632)
Away
52.6% (584)
51.0% (679)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
54.1%
54.3%
P2
56.4%
53.5%
P3
56.4%
50.9%
OT
65.6%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2014 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2014 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2014 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2014 | 1 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 7, 2014 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2014 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2014 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |