Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carpenter wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 50.2% vs Johansen 55.1% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 86.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 62.5%
Neutral zone
Johansen 66.7%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Carpenter
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Carpenter
Johansen
Last 7: Carpenter 4-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Carpenter
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
4
1
Carpenter
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (314)
55.9% (1,157)
-7.5%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
56.5% (237)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
57.0% (79)
43.3% (67)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Carpenter is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Carpenter shoots right. Johansen is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Johansen
Home
55.8% (197)
55.8% (733)
Away
44.8% (201)
55.1% (728)
By Period
Carpenter
Johansen
P1
48.3%
53.5%
P2
47.8%
55.9%
P3
54.6%
57.2%
OT
0.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
59.8%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 18:25 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |