Scouting Report
Vladimir Sobotka holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kesler wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 53.3% vs Sobotka 55.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sobotka 56.1%
Defensive zone
Sobotka 70.5%
Neutral zone
Sobotka 56.5%
Result
Vladimir Sobotka favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Kesler
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kesler
Sobotka
Last 8: Kesler 6-2 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
4
0
Kesler
Sobotka
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Sobotka
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kesler
Sobotka
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (981)
56.0% (373)
-2.2%
Power Play
56.9% (160)
57.1% (21)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (185)
56.1% (107)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Sobotka has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Kesler shoots right. Sobotka is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Kesler
Sobotka
Home
54.1% (690)
58.4% (255)
Away
53.1% (661)
53.7% (246)
By Period
Kesler
Sobotka
P1
52.3%
53.4%
P2
52.8%
57.9%
P3
56.3%
55.5%
OT
44.1%
80.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Vladimir Sobotka |