Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.4%). Lindholm wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 62.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 60.5%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 54.2%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
55.7% (856)
-0.9%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
57.5% (233)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
50.0% (144)
+2.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Lindholm shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Lindholm
O'Reilly
Home
56.6% (578)
55.5% (616)
Away
54.9% (455)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Lindholm
O'Reilly
P1
55.2%
58.1%
P2
56.3%
54.9%
P3
56.3%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |