Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Spezza
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
Last 8: Spezza 7-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
0
Spezza
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
56.9% (1,203)
-3.7%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
60.2% (329)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
50.4% (280)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
Home / Away
Spezza
O'Reilly
Home
57.5% (518)
58.6% (879)
Away
51.8% (463)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Spezza
O'Reilly
P1
55.4%
55.6%
P2
54.1%
57.9%
P3
55.5%
55.7%
OT
25.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
59.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 08:54 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |