Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kadri wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 79.6%
Defensive zone
Kadri 82.4%
Neutral zone
Kadri 78.8%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Kadri
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kadri
O'Reilly
Last 7: Kadri 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Kadri
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kadri
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (848)
55.7% (856)
-8.8%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
57.5% (233)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
50.0% (144)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kadri is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (609).
Kadri shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Kadri
O'Reilly
Home
46.5% (495)
55.5% (616)
Away
47.6% (452)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Kadri
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
58.1%
P2
48.9%
54.9%
P3
40.1%
53.9%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
34.0%▼
38.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |