Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 50.2% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-2 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carpenter 84.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 80.4%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 79.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
12
(14 meetings)
2
12
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Carpenter 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Carpenter
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Carpenter
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Carpenter
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (314)
60.3% (1,517)
-11.9%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
61.5% (387)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
57.0% (79)
55.0% (220)
+2.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Carpenter shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Carpenter
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (197)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
44.8% (201)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Carpenter
O'Reilly
P1
48.3%
56.8%
P2
47.8%
64.6%
P3
54.6%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2018 | OT | 03:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 13:05 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 14:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 09:27 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |