Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Bennett 48.2% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 87.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Nelson
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
5
(21 meetings)
16
5
Nelson
Bennett
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Bennett
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Bennett
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
3
Nelson
Bennett
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
46.4% (811)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
56.9% (153)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
47.8% (46)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Bennett has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Bennett is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bennett
Home
52.6% (639)
49.9% (553)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.7% (457)
By Period
Nelson
Bennett
P1
48.3%
47.4%
P2
54.0%
46.8%
P3
50.4%
48.9%
OT
41.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Bennett
46.0%▼
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |