Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Carrick 54.2% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 90.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 69.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 80.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Carlsson
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carlsson
Carrick
Last 6: Carlsson 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Carlsson
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Carlsson
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Carlsson
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (690)
55.5% (470)
-10.6%
Power Play
47.0% (83)
66.7% (3)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
50.0% (58)
-16.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Carlsson is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Carlsson shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Carrick
Home
42.5% (428)
58.6% (261)
Away
45.5% (429)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Carlsson
Carrick
P1
45.1%
55.9%
P2
39.0%
53.5%
P3
48.5%
55.6%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
36.0%▼
38.5%
44.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |