Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Couturier 53.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 94.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 52.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 88.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Toews
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Couturier
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
53.9% (792)
+8.7%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
62.9% (70)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
51.3% (234)
-4.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Toews
Couturier
Home
61.1% (455)
51.4% (541)
Away
62.1% (448)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Toews
Couturier
P1
59.7%
56.0%
P2
66.7%
52.6%
P3
58.4%
54.3%
OT
80.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
58.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |