Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Monahan 52.5% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 63.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 62.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Mercer
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Monahan
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Mercer
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Mercer
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.0% (874)
-14.2%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
54.7% (161)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
47.5% (101)
+7.0%
On power play, Monahan has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Mercer
Monahan
Home
35.2% (145)
53.8% (558)
Away
43.2% (146)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Mercer
Monahan
P1
32.7%
49.5%
P2
42.7%
54.8%
P3
42.9%
52.8%
Final 5 min
39.2%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:41 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |