Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 49.6% vs Aho 53.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 74.9%
Defensive zone
Jarnkrok 53.8%
Neutral zone
Jarnkrok 58.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Jarnkrok
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Jarnkrok
Aho
Last 6: Jarnkrok 3-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Jarnkrok
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
2
0
Jarnkrok
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (82)
51.2% (785)
+2.5%
Power Play
10.0% (10)
63.8% (213)
-53.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
57.9% (57)
-7.9%
On power play, Aho has a +53.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Jarnkrok is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (101).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Aho
Home
50.7% (71)
54.9% (548)
Away
47.5% (61)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Aho
P1
52.1%
52.8%
P2
40.5%
58.9%
P3
56.1%
50.6%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
52.0%▲
48.5%
49.2%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |