Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Kasper wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.9% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 17-7 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Kasper 83.5%
Defensive zone
Kasper 89.2%
Neutral zone
Kasper 79.8%
Result
Marco Kasper favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Kasper
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
17
(24 meetings)
7
17
Kasper
Aho
Last 10: Kasper 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
8
Kasper
Aho
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Kasper
Aho
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
4
Kasper
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (960)
50.2% (6,646)
-3.0%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
58.9% (1,310)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
46.5% (465)
-15.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kasper is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Kasper shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Kasper
Aho
Home
49.4% (474)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
44.2% (554)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Kasper
Aho
P1
48.0%
51.1%
P2
51.0%
52.1%
P3
40.2%
50.8%
OT
66.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
40.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:36 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:53 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |