Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.1% vs Aho 50.5% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 89.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 67.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 67.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 85.2%
14.8%
85.2%
Kastelic
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kastelic
Aho
Last 5: Kastelic 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Kastelic
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (362)
50.5% (878)
+10.3%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
53.5% (144)
+29.8%
Penalty Kill
56.2% (146)
44.3% (61)
+11.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Kastelic shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Aho
Home
60.3% (242)
53.8% (571)
Away
59.2% (272)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Kastelic
Aho
P1
58.9%
49.0%
P2
57.3%
51.7%
P3
64.0%
50.3%
OT
53.8%
58.8%
Final 5 min
66.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |