Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Aho 50.5% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 78.8%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 74.2%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 72.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Schmaltz
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Schmaltz
Aho
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Schmaltz
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Schmaltz
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
50.5% (878)
-4.6%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
53.5% (144)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
44.3% (61)
+3.7%
On power play, Aho has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Aho
Home
44.9% (434)
53.8% (571)
Away
47.7% (405)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Schmaltz
Aho
P1
41.5%
49.0%
P2
46.7%
51.7%
P3
51.1%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
40.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |