Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Pinto 51.1% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pinto 66.7%
Defensive zone
Pinto 85.6%
Neutral zone
Pinto 77.5%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 77.2%
22.8%
77.2%
Sourdif
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sourdif
Pinto
Last 8: Sourdif 5-3 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Pinto
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
Sourdif
Pinto
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
4
2
Sourdif
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
50.5% (556)
-6.2%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
68.0% (25)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
51.1% (94)
+10.4%
On power play, Pinto has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Sourdif shoots right. Pinto is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Pinto
Home
43.6% (321)
50.0% (310)
Away
46.2% (301)
52.3% (365)
By Period
Sourdif
Pinto
P1
41.9%
51.8%
P2
44.3%
49.8%
P3
47.9%
53.1%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Pinto
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:13 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:27 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |