Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 55.9%). Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Crosby 55.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 83.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 55.6%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Carrick
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carrick
Crosby
Last 6: Carrick 2-4 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
Carrick
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carrick
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
53.6% (1,008)
+1.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
65.0% (246)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (58)
60.0% (15)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Crosby is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (373).
Home / Away
Carrick
Crosby
Home
58.6% (261)
56.9% (675)
Away
51.5% (270)
54.7% (594)
By Period
Carrick
Crosby
P1
55.9%
55.6%
P2
53.5%
53.3%
P3
55.6%
58.7%
OT
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Crosby
62.0%▲
53.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:38 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |