Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Beniers wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 48.8% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 83.2%
Defensive zone
Beniers 82.8%
Neutral zone
Beniers 80.0%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Beniers
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Beniers
Stamkos
Last 8: Beniers 2-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Beniers
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Beniers
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Beniers
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (862)
57.1% (368)
-8.8%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
55.2% (96)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
50.0% (10)
+0.0%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Beniers is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Beniers shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Beniers
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (460)
53.9% (230)
Away
45.1% (470)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Beniers
Stamkos
P1
47.5%
56.7%
P2
50.6%
54.1%
P3
47.6%
59.2%
OT
62.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
32.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:45 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 17:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |