Connor McMichael vs Tage Thompson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Thompson 45.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 50.7%
Defensive zone
McMichael 69.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 55.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
McMichael
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McMichael
Thompson
Last 5: McMichael 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
McMichael
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
McMichael
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
44.6% (661)
-1.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
48.4% (95)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
33.3% (33)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McMichael is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (192).
McMichael shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
McMichael
Thompson
Home
43.0% (298)
45.7% (411)
Away
42.6% (270)
43.4% (378)
By Period
McMichael
Thompson
P1
46.6%
47.7%
P2
40.8%
45.7%
P3
41.8%
40.5%
Final 5 min
43.3%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |