Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.0% vs 42.6%). Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 55.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 59.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Cates
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
12
(26 meetings)
14
12
Cates
Thompson
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
5
4
Cates
Thompson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
5
2
Cates
Thompson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
4
6
Cates
Thompson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
42.9% (3,540)
+1.2%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
46.9% (373)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
33.6% (265)
+1.3%
On power play, Thompson has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Cates
Thompson
Home
43.9% (1,708)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Cates
Thompson
P1
44.5%
44.4%
P2
43.7%
43.7%
P3
41.2%
40.0%
OT
29.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
41.4%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:54 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 3, 2023 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |