Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 45.2% vs Hertl 57.4% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 84.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 79.6%
20.4%
79.6%
Thompson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thompson
Hertl
Last 6: Thompson 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
1
Thompson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (661)
58.5% (845)
-13.9%
Power Play
48.4% (95)
56.2% (281)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (33)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Thompson shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Thompson
Hertl
Home
45.7% (411)
60.0% (582)
Away
43.4% (378)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Thompson
Hertl
P1
47.7%
52.1%
P2
45.7%
63.6%
P3
40.5%
58.8%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |