Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Hertl 57.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 69.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Evans
Hertl
Last 10: Evans 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
8
Evans
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Evans
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
58.5% (845)
-2.9%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
56.2% (281)
+16.5%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
62.9% (35)
-7.7%
On power play, Evans has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
54.7% (402)
60.0% (582)
Away
56.9% (341)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
57.9%
52.1%
P2
55.2%
63.6%
P3
53.6%
58.8%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |